Taking Risk in a Fragile, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible World.

Overnight success, unicorn startups, billion-dollar valuations, and Insta-infamous entrepreneurs flaunting Bentleys and private jets—we romanticise successful business ownership as glamorous, easy, and always upward-moving, don't we?!

But let’s get brutally honest: business ownership isn’t just tough; it's painfully punishing. There's a dark, relentless reality few openly discuss—deep bouts of depression, paralysing loneliness, constant anxiety, sleepless nights, and moments of despair. The chasing of comfort in all the wrong places...

It feels like stepping into a boxing ring blindfolded, knowing you'll get hit hard but never knowing when or from which direction.

Two decades ago, business strategists embraced VUCA—Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity—to describe the challenging yet navigable business landscape. VUCA allowed entrepreneurs/business owners to plan, strategise, adapt, and pivot effectively. Challenges were tough, yet manageable.

But the world has evolved drastically, shifting from VUCA to something far more unsettling and relentless: BANI—Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible.

Unlike VUCA’s navigable chaos, BANI represents fragility—one misstep can shatter everything instantly.

Systems and markets collapse overnight, anxiety is constant, changes explode unpredictably, and events unfold faster than comprehension.

As a business owner, community leader, or anyone pursuing personal ambitions, strategic planning in a BANI world can seem nearly impossible.

How can we possibly plan the future when every forward step triggers more instability?

Yet, despite the turbulence, we must adapt and thrive. Here are approaches I have learned (sometimes the hard way):

Stories of Pivoting With BANI

I recall the journey of one startup I guided through a relentless storm of pivots. Initially, it was a health-tech app aimed at simplifying doctor-patient interactions. Overnight, regulatory changes gutted their core model. We pivoted urgently, embracing telehealth, driven by sleepless nights and relentless prototyping.

Just as traction emerged, tech giants stormed the market, forcing yet another gut-wrenching pivot.

We chased a new niche—mental wellness—a smaller, overlooked market segment. It took constant fundraising, countless rejections, repeated iterations, and immense resilience before the startup finally discovered its product-market fit.

This experience was BANI in action—brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible, yet ultimately rewarding.

Navigating BANI Strategically: Deepened Examples

1. Brittle: A local manufacturer depended heavily on overseas suppliers. A sudden political crisis shattered supply lines overnight. Their resilience strategy, though costly, involved diversified local suppliers and emergency inventory buffers. It wasn’t cheap, but it kept them operational when fragility threatened collapse.

What we can learn here?

2. Anxious: A spin-cycle chain in Perth were hit with crushing anxiety when those sudden lockdowns happened during COVID. The owner's response was swift—immediately gathering consumer preference data, pivoting to a Peleton-type model, renting out their spin-bikes and running remote classes. Anxiety reduced as action replaced paralysis, guided by real-time customer insights.

What we can learn here?

3. Non-linear: There was another technology startup in consumer data that initially chased grocery delivery (pre-Uber Eats). Competition soon suffocated the market. Rather than doubling down, they experimented radically, pivoting into omni-channel consumer data. This non-linear approach—initially uncertain—ultimately revealed a lucrative and underserved niche, turning, what looked like defeat, into success.

What we can learn here?

4. Incomprehensible: A health-focused juice company was thriving pre-pandemic, with busy storefronts and strong sales through local fitness studios. But COVID restrictions abruptly closed gyms and dramatically reduced foot traffic, threatening the business's survival. Instead of folding, they embraced the incomprehensible. Rapidly prototyping a direct-to-consumer subscription model, they launched online sales, health-focused virtual events, and interactive live-streamed juicing classes. This swift and creative pivot transformed their customer engagement, built a loyal community, and ultimately positioned the company for even greater success post-pandemic, turning crisis into opportunity.

What we can learn here?

Embracing Risk: Resilience in Action

Risk-taking is inevitable and fundamental to business growth.

In a BANI world, avoiding risk is impossible, and resilience in taking risks is your greatest asset. Every pivotal moment in entrepreneurship involves taking leaps into uncertainty.

I’ve learned that calculated risk, grounded in solid analysis and courage, determines survival or failure.

Avoiding risk means stagnation, while embracing risk, creates the opportunities.

For example, with the health-tech startup, each pivot was a significant risk—financially, strategically, and emotionally. However, by leaning into these risks rather than retreating, we ultimately found success.

Risk isn’t reckless—it’s resilience in the face of uncertainty.

Building an Unshakeable Belief Network

Business ownership relentlessly tests your mental health.

Loneliness, anxiety, and depression are amplified by isolation. I’ve experienced dark moments when my confidence disintegrated entirely.

Your belief network isn’t simply supportive; it’s a survival tool. The trio of individuals mentioned in my previous post (read here) are essential for emotional resilience, providing stability and strength during inevitable struggles.

Embrace a Hard Work Ethic but Be Structured

Hard work is foundational, but it must be strategic. Here are strategies I have adopted to enhance productivity:

• Morning Routines: Wake early, journal, and plan your day, know what you are doing before you start.

• Pomodoro Technique: Structured, focused bursts of 25-minute work sprints followed by intentional breaks.

• Pareto Principle (80/20): Prioritising critical tasks producing maximum impact.

• Scheduled Reflective Breaks: Periodic, deliberate pauses to recalibrate focus and maintain strategic alignment.

  
  

These disciplined habits fight against becoming overwhelmed, they reinforce resilience, and sustain productivity amidst chaos.

Mental Health: The Invisible Battle

Business Ownership/Entrepreneurship is emotionally challenging, with high risks of anxiety, depression, and burnout. I’ve faced nights of paralysing anxiety and debilitating doubt. Ignoring mental health isn't viable—it must be integral to your business strategy.

Regular honest conversations with trusted confidants, and scheduled mental health breaks are not luxuries—they’re vital for survival. Prioritising mental health is non-negotiable, ensuring resilience in navigating BANI's turbulent environment.

The Power of Resilient Risk-Taking

Everything we do demands risk-taking, and resilience transforms these risks into opportunities. Risk isn’t avoidable—it’s integral.

You have to cultivate resilience—learning to embrace uncertainty, adapt rapidly, and pivot decisively.

Even in my own journey, each decision to pivot, prototype, or pitch was risky, uncertain, and emotionally draining. Yet, resilience in the face of risk defined eventual success.

Risk-taking requires courage, optimism, and adaptability, forming the backbone of entrepreneurial resilience.

Lastly: Surviving and Thriving in BANI

If you want to grow your business in a BANI world, it isn't about evading punches—it’s about absorbing blows, recovering quickly, and responding strategically. Mental toughness, adaptability, disciplined productivity, emotional resilience, and courageous risk-taking are survival essentials.

Welcome to our unsettling new reality. Embrace the chaos. Relentlessly experiment. Lean heavily on your belief network. Structure your work diligently. Prioritise your mental health openly. Take bold risks with resilience.

This is how we don’t just survive—but thrive—in the BANI era.

TK